Amuse Bouche

 Part II – Tuesday Evening

First of all, there are 2 play-in games tonight. Right now, at the half, Florida-Gulf Coast is pummeling Fairleigh-Dickinson in a 16 vs. 16 game with little import but the right to lose to North Carolina by 40.

But the 2^nd game is a doozy, Vanderbilt vs. Wichita St.; two 11 seeds that each have potential to wreak havoc in later rounds. Wichita State guards Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker have already been to the Final Four as freshman, and were key players on the undefeated regular season team 2 years ago. Such seasoned and successful leadership from the backcourt is usually a recipe for tournament success, and is basically unheard of in an eleven seed. According to efficiency guru Ken Pomeroy, the Shockers have the most efficient defense in the country, also usually a harbinger of deep bracket runs. But if Wichita St. has a weakness, it's a lack of size inside. And Vanderbilt has three 7-footers. Plus Vandy shoots the 3 as well as anybody I've seen this year. Both these teams lost a bunch of games they shouldn't have, especially early in the season, but in Wichita State's defense, their worst stretch was when Fred Van Vleet was out with an injury.

My prediction, Vandy's Wade Baldwin is the best player on the court tonight, but Fred and Ron and Evan Wessel and Anton Grady extend their senior season at least one more game. Shockers, 69-58.

For He Heard the Loud Bassoon

      Yet again, the bracket Brigadoon emerges from the mists, full of questionable insights and faulty prognostications. Like the poster says, “It could be that the purpose of your life is only to serve as a warning to others.” So call me the Ancient Bracketeer, and by hearing my pretzel logic and tales of tournaments passed, you will know the error of my ways, and perhaps be empowered to avoid the shoals of my despair.

Part I – Tuesday morning, 3/15/16

  

     Forty hours have passed since Selection Sunday, and by now, typically, I'd be surrounded by printouts of rebounding margins and Pomeroy rankings, feverishly arguing for both sides of 7 vs. 10 matchup such as Iowa vs. Temple, which Fran is the Franniest? Or weighing 11 different Final Four teams by backup point guards' assist-to-turnover ratio in away games.

      Unlike the Ancient Mariner, I have some self-awareness, so I know that way lies madness. Beyond the math, which approaches Avogadrian complexity, the fact that, in filling out a bracket, you are trying to predict the behavior and mind-sets of 64 (play-in games not included) groups of 18 to 22-year-old men, should give your confidence pause.

      In fact, it is that air of misplaced confidence, so common among the professional prognoscenti, that has led me to a new epiphany. No one knows anything. After hearing all winter how chaotic this season has been, about how top teams have more losses than ever and anyone can beat anyone on a neutral court, it drives me crazy that all the experts are picking nothing but 1 and 2 seeds for the Final Four, and everyone has Kansas, UNC or Michigan St. as their National Champion. Look, it's March and Donald Trump continues to lead the race for the Republican nomination. Not for Mendacious Wind-Bag. For President. These may not be End Times, but they sure are crazy ones. So my motto is: Embrace the Chaos. With some caveats, as follows:

1. Conferences matter, to a point. Last year, the Big 12 underperformed, although they look strong this year. The Big 10 has a long history of disappointing results, Michigan St. excepted. This year, the RPI loves the Pac 12, but when's the last time a Pac 12 team other than Arizona made the Elite Eight? 2008 (UCLA). My plan this year is to give Big 12 and ACC teams the benefit of the doubt, but be skeptical of non-Michigan St. Big 10 teams, and downright disdainful of Pac-12 teams, with the possible exception of Arizona. And I have an irrational love for the 3 Atlantic 10 teams (St. Joe's, Dayton, VCU) that may come back to haunt me.
   
   
2. Coaches matter, to a point. Mike Krzyewski, Roy Williams, John Calipari, Tom Izzo, Bill Self, all these guys are in the Hall of Fame or will be for a reason. They been through March Madness many times and have had great success many times. But they also failed many times, with highly seeded and well-regarded teams losing early. I'll probably pick against a couple of them early, and then hate myself later. What about a younger coach who's ready for a breakthrough to greatness this year. Who will it be? Tony Bennett (please!), Mark Turgeon, Cuonzo Martin, Jay Wright, Matt Painter, Chris Mack, Scott Drew? Can Jim Larranaga bring his Cinderella magic to Miami? And can Shaka Smart exorcise years of bad underperforming juju from Texas? 
    
3. Player experience matters. This tends to take care of itself for the higher seeds, but there are exceptions. According to this helpful Redditor, who compiled tournament minutes of experience for current players on all 68 teams, some teams have surprisingly low previous experience, such as Oregon, Cal, Texas A&M, and Seton Hall, while others with lower seeds have a lot of experience, for example Arizona, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Dayton. And tonight, there's a fascinating test case for the theory that player experience matters when Wichita St., with 832 minutes of player experience (3^rd most in the entire field) plays Vanderbilt, with 0 minutes of experience.

But, mostly, I want to have fun. So when in doubt, I'll pick the upset. And my Final Four won't be just 1 and 2 seeds, because where's the fun in that. And as a hedge, I won't pick Virginia or Kentucky to make the Final Four. That way, if they do, I'll be so happy I won't really care if my bracket is toasted garbage. And if they don't, maybe a semi-successful bracket will console me in my time of darkness. Like Coleridge wrote, “The guests are met, the feast is set: May'st hear the merry din.”