Analysis Makes an Anus out of You and Me

Forty-Eight games into the Madness; plenty of time and data to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of my bracket prediction humors/modes and various blends.  Let's take a look:

Love Bracket - 1st Round - 21/32 correct, 2nd round - 9/16 correct, 39 total points
                      5/8 Elite 8, 2/4 Final Four remaining
Hate Bracket - 1st Round - 22/32 correct, 2nd round - 8/16 correct, 38 total points
                      4/8 Elite 8, 3/4 Final Four remaining, champion gone
Brain Bracket - 1st round - 24/32 correct, 2nd round - 10/16 correct, 44 total points
                      5/8 Elite 8, 4/4 Final Four remaining
Monkey Poo -    1st round - 24/32 correct, 2nd round - 10/16 correct, 44 total points
                      4/8 Elite 8, 3/4 Final Four remaining

I don't know what it means that the Brain and Monkey Poo brackets are my 2 best; it could be that my heart and spleen are both vestigial organs at this point and have little influence on my my prognostication.  It could also just mean I have my head up my ass.

How about the custom blends?

Love/Hate - 1st round - 22/32 correct, 2nd round - 9/16 correct, 40 total points
                   6/8 Elite 8, 4/4 Final Four remaining
Analysis/Hate - 1st round 19/32 correct, 2nd round - 8/16 correct, 35 total points
                   6/8 Elite 8, 4/4 Final Four remaining
Love/Analysis - 1st round - 24/32 correct, 2nd round - 8/16 correct, 40 total points
                   4/8 Elite 8, 2/4 Final Four remaining
Hate/Monkey Poo - 1st round - 23/32 correct, 2nd round 5/16 correct, 33 total points
                   3/8 Elite 8, 1/4 Final Four remaining, champion gone
"Perfection" - 1st round - 20/32 correct, 2nd round - 9/16 correct, 38 total points
                   4/8 Elite 8, 3/4 Final Four remaining, champion gone

Obviously, there are still a lot of games to be played and majority of points still to be scored.  But I have to say my blending process appears to be a failure, since none of the blends is clearly superior to either pure intelligence or pure luck.  Just as an exercise, I decided to see what my best possible blend could have been.  With the right blend, I could have gone 32/32 in the first round and 15/16 in the second round.  Interestingly, the one Sweet 16 team I didn't pick on any of my brackets was my Kentucky Wildcats.  And in most of the cases where only 1 of my 4 humor brackets was correct, it was hate (6/10).  So if there is a lesson to be learned here, it's that picking a few teams I hate could really help my predictions.  The problem is I hate so many teams it's hard to know which ones to pick.

I Feel Lucky

Day 1 was everything I could have hoped for.  Lots of great games, 4 overtimes, 3 upsets accurately predicted, one of my Cinderellas (North Dakota St.) surviving, 2 highly favored teams (Florida and Louisville) looking a little shaky.  If only New Mexico St. could have pulled off the upset in the late game, then I would be ecstatic.

How are my brackets doing, you ask? Let's take a look:

Foundational

Love: 11/16 correct, 2 Sweet 16 teams lost
Hate: 10/16 correct, 2 Sweet 16 teams lost
Analysis: 12/16 correct, no Sweet 16 teams lost
Monkey Poo: 13/16 correct, 2 Sweet 16 teams and 1 Elite 8 team lost

Blends

Love/Analysis: 13/16 correct, no Sweet 16 teams lost
Analysis/Hate: 11/13 correct, 2 Sweet 16 teams and 1 Elite 8 team lost
Love/Hate: 12/16 correct, no Sweet 16 team lost
Hate/Monkey Poo: 12/16 correct, 2 Sweet 16 teams lost

Perfection: 10/16 correct, 1 Sweet 16 team lost

Clearly, by taking the pressure of a perfect bracket off of me and placing on Reality, Reality decided to assert itself and prevent some otherwise wonderful upsets from occurring. Like Huxley said, "...many a beautiful theory was killed by an ugly fact." Ugly fact, thy name is Syracuse.

How about today's games. Let's start with early batch:

(3) Duke vs. (14) Mercer

I have trouble imagining Duke struggling with this game, but if Mercer can pull off the upset, I will proclaim Verdukianism and drink nothing but root beer for the rest of my life.

(6) Baylor vs. (11) Nebraska

Baylor, as always, is capable of higher highs and lower lows than any team not named Tennessee.  Nebraska has to get past the "just happy to be here" problem. I don't think they do, and Baylor's superior talent wins out.

(7) New Mexico vs. (10) Stanford

I can't decide if Mountain West March Sadness Syndrome is stronger than General Pac-12 Mediocrity Malady.  I guess we'll find out.  Really could use a New Mexico win for my best surviving bracket.

(1) Arizona vs. (16) Weber St.

I will cheerfully withdraw my Foofraw Voodoo Curse if Weber St. can pull this one off.  Root Beers for Everyone!

Dayton Flyers, Baby!

Our first game of the day ends in an upset, and one I actually predicted.  This is the high point and I will revel in it, for now.  And, as I predicted, Wisconsin has dismantled American and Pitt is destroying Colorado, so I could start off 3 for 3.  But Harvard is up 5 early over Cincinnati, so the syncrasticity between my perfect bracket and perfection in this universe may be transitory. Sic transit gloria bracket.

How about the next set of games?

(3) Syracuse vs. (14) Western Michigan

I've got Western Michigan here, but this has more to do with how Syracuse looked the last couple of weeks and my excessive propensity for upsets than any knowledge I have about the Broncos.  I'm hoping for some early coach-hating behavior from the Orange.

(7) Oregon vs. (10) BYU

After the Foofraw Fiasco a few years ago, I swore never again to pick a team from the Beehive State to win a game in the tournament.  Given my abiding dislike of BYU, this is easy.  Go Ducks!

(1) Florida vs. (16) Albany

No matter how much this is an upset devoutly to be wished. I can't see it happening.  If Albany wins, I will renounce root beer.

(4) Michigan St. vs. (13) Delaware

The Spartans are everybody's trendy Final Four pick, as well as many's national champ (I'm looking at you, Barack). This disrepects my Cavaliers and I will not have it.  So even though I know better than to pick against Tom Izzo in March, I'm all in. Go Blue Hens! 

Still Perfect

So, the Wisconsin-American game is headed to halftime, and after a nice start by the Eagles, the Badgers have been asserting themselves and seem to be starting to pull away. Meanwhile, Dayton is justifying my upset faith in them, just now going up 5 early in the second half.  As expected, the Buckeyes' offense is sputtering like Sylvester the cat after a dentist appointment.  And the Flyers are playing with poise and purpose (try saying that in Sylvester's voice).  The end of this could be a lot of fun.

Time's Winged Brackbuster

In 30 minutes, March Madness will begin, and the ticking clock on my anguished futility will start its relentless countdown.  I have tried to forestall it with 9 different brackets and an appeal to multiverse theory, but the fact remains, by the end of today, I will already have overpredicted 3 or 4 upsets and missed the 1 or 2 that actually happened. By Sunday evening no doubt, there will be gaps in my Elite 8 and Final Four.  Let's hope, in fact, that they are gaps and not yawning abysses. 

In the meantime, I hope to enjoy the journey.  In terms of my "perfect" bracket, I've got 4 upsets today: Dayton over Ohio St., Western Michigan over Syracuse, Delaware over Michigan St., and Manhattan over Louisville.  If any one of those happens, I will be a happy camper.

The first 4 games:

(6) Ohio St. vs. (11) Dayton

 Why can Dayton win this game? I have 2 complementary theories. One - the Big 10 wasn't as great as everyone thinks, while the A10 was better than expected. By my calculations, Dayton is a pretty strong 11 seed. And Ohio State may struggle to score 60 points today, since their offense is, let's just say, inconsistent.  Go Flyers!

(2) Wisconsin vs. (15) American

In none of my nine brackets did I even consider this upset.  Ruh-Roh.  As a coach, Bo Ryan does have a history of underperforming in March, but this would be an epic upset.  While I would love the higgledy-piggledy this could cause, I really can't see it happening.

(8) Colorado vs. (9) Pitt

Still don't see how Colorado is an 8 seed, and can't see anything but a classic Pitt defensive beatdown here -  say 67-45.  That may be my ACC bias coming through, due to my unconditional love of this year's Virginia Cavaliers.  But if Colorado wins this game, I will renounce Verdukianism and never celebrate Merlinpeen again.  I will, however, continue to believe in the healing power of root beer.

(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) Harvard

I know, trendy upset pick here.  But I don't think Harvard has seen a team as tough and defensively-minded as Cincinnati.  Plus I think Sean Kilpatrick abuses the Crimson and goes for 30.  Cincinnati wins, 71-51.

See you at halftime.

Sudden Realizing, Of Great Truth

So my brackets are done.  First the four foundational brackets, representing the four bracket humors of love (heart), hate (spleen), analysis (brain), and luck (rectum), as summarized:

Love - National Champ - Virginia
          Other Final Four - VCU, San Diego St., Wichita St.
          Sweet 16 Cinderellas - Dayton, St. Joe's, Tennessee
          First Round Upsets - Western Michigan, North Dakota St., Wofford

Hate - National Champ - Duke
          Other Final Four - Florida, Michigan St., Arizona
          Sweet 16 Cinderellas - Stanford, Memphis, Kansas St., NC State
          First Round Upsets - Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, New Mexico St.

Analysis - National Champ - Arizona
               Other Final Four - Florida, Virginia, Louisville
               Sweet 16 Cinderellas - none
               First Round Upsets - BYU, Tennessee

Monkey Poo - National Champ - Tennessee
                     Other Final Four - Florida, Iowa St., Oklahoma
                     Sweet 16 Cinderellas - New Mexico, UConn
                     First Round Upsets - Dayton, Xavier, Mercer

From here I then made 4 impromptu custom blends to submit to 4 online contests. A Love blend with prominent analysis aroma to ESPN; a spicy Hate/Monkey Poo mixture to Capital One; a bipolar combination of Love and Hate to CBS; and an predominantly analysis blend with just a soupcon of hate to the Washington Post.

All these of course were meant to be merely palate cleansers for the Perfect Bracket, the harmonious coalescence of Love, Hate, Analysis, and Monkey Poo in just the right proportions as to predict accurately all 63 games of the actual bracket, hence winning me $1,000,000,000 in the Warren Buffett/Yahoo/Quicken Loans Challenge.  That was the plan, at least, until I had an epiphany yesterday in the Westminster branch of the Carroll County Public Library.  What if I had it backwards?  What if my job was not to predict, but to proclaim?  All the stat heads of the world keep telling us the odds of picking a perfect bracket are, if not astronomical, at least downright discouraging. A recipe for failure.  But what if a perfect bracket is not an accurate prognostication, but rather a statement of ideals, a Tom Joad's speech, a vision of how things should be, so clear, so powerful as to call itself into being.  That's the bracket I would make.  And if it turned out to be imperfect, to fail at predicting reality, well that was reality's fault, not mine.  And given the recent report detailing observation of gravitational waves in the background cosmic radiation consistent with inflationary theories of immediate post-Big-Bang universe expansion, which itself is consistent with the possibility of multiverses, then perhaps somewhere out there, is a universe where my perfect bracket predicts and proclaims.  And another universe where your bracket is perfect.  Good luck collecting that money from alternate universe Warren Buffett, though.
 
 
           

Late Night Thoughts Upon First Staring Into This Year's Bracket

1. If I were Louisville or Michigan State, I would be pissed. By giving these teams both a 4 seed, does the committee really believe the Cardinals and the Spartans are somewhere between the 13th and 16th best teams in the country?  Sure didn't look like it this weekend. More like 2nd and 3rd by my eyes. Maybe higher, because Florida looked a little vulnerable.  Sure, body of work and all that rot.  But given Louisville's weak non-conference performance and Michigan State's injury-driven February lull, I could see docking them down to 2 seeds, but 4 seems downright disrepectful. What a gift to coaches Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo.  As if they needed any help.

2. In related news, my two favorite teams in this year's tournament, #1 seeds Virginia and Wichita State, better gird their frickin' loins.  Assuming they can make the Sweet 16, they have the aforementioned thoroughly inspired 4 seeds potentially waiting for them.  And in especially egregious salt-rubbing, Wichita State would play Louisville in Indianapolis, less than a 2 hour drive for the Cardinal faithful.

3. Another 4 seed, San Diego State, would get to play Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games in Anaheim, which according to my calculations, is only the length of 84,480 giant heads placed end to end. Not that I mind that Arizona, the 1 seed in that region and one of my least favorite teams historically, would be at a disadvantage if that happened.

4.  Things I need to remember from previous years, in no particular order:

      A. Pick against Tom Izzo and Michigan State at your own peril.

      B. Never pick a team from the Beehive State, which is never to be mentioned by name but rhymes with "Foofraw".

      C. Teams from the Mountain West should not be trusted.

      D. Non-Michigan-State Big 10 teams are always overrated.

      E. As my brother's father-in-law once observed, there comes a time every year when the Syracuse Orange play like they hate their coach. The trick is figuring out when that will happen.

      F.  Teams coached by Rick Barnes, i.e. Texas, will always underperform, often in spectacular fashion.

      G.  Tennessee, also known as Team Knucklehead, will either make it to the Elite Eight, or lose to Iowa by 30. There is no in between for Team Knucklehead.

      H.  Gonzaga is always most dangerous in Cinderella mode.

      I.  The Basketball Gods will punish poor footwear choices.  Are you listening Virginia? Orange shoes are not your friend, they are the Devil's shodding.

    

Bracket Humor

With Selection Sunday looming and because of the additional incentive of Warren Buffett's Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge, I have decided to resume blogging. For now, I plan to focus on the development and implementation of the perfect NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament bracket; whether this leads to further blogging on the panoply of topics that occupy my feverishly undisciplined brain or shamefully evaporates before the second weekend probably answers itself. Still, I can dream of being a productive polymath, and monkeys can dream of flying out of my butt. Wait. That didn't come out right.

This year, I have decided to give in completely to my incipient Ignatius J. Reilly-ness (hence the blog name) and center my bracket preparation on “theology and geometry”. Specifically, inspired by the Greek concept of the four humors, I postulate that there are four fundamental modes of bracket prognostication that connect to four bodily organs:

1. Analysis – picking the “best” teams – Brain
2. Positive Emotion – picking the teams you like – Heart
3. Negative Emotion – picking the teams you hate – Spleen
4. Luck – picking teams out of your ass – Colon

While in the past I have availed myself of all of these modes in various non-systematic amounts, what I always forgot what Hippocrates and Galen knew; the key was balance. In other words, my brackets were dyscrastic. No more. This year, I will create four separate “humoral” brackets, which I will submit to various contests, but for the Billion Dollar Challenge, I will attempt, through some mystical process as yet determined, to bring these four brackets into their proper balance. To me at least, the humorous possibilities seem manifold, especially at my expense. So I plan on blogging my way through.