Thursday, March 27, 2014

Analysis Makes an Anus out of You and Me

Forty-Eight games into the Madness; plenty of time and data to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of my bracket prediction humors/modes and various blends.  Let's take a look:

Love Bracket - 1st Round - 21/32 correct, 2nd round - 9/16 correct, 39 total points
                      5/8 Elite 8, 2/4 Final Four remaining
Hate Bracket - 1st Round - 22/32 correct, 2nd round - 8/16 correct, 38 total points
                      4/8 Elite 8, 3/4 Final Four remaining, champion gone
Brain Bracket - 1st round - 24/32 correct, 2nd round - 10/16 correct, 44 total points
                      5/8 Elite 8, 4/4 Final Four remaining
Monkey Poo -    1st round - 24/32 correct, 2nd round - 10/16 correct, 44 total points
                      4/8 Elite 8, 3/4 Final Four remaining

I don't know what it means that the Brain and Monkey Poo brackets are my 2 best; it could be that my heart and spleen are both vestigial organs at this point and have little influence on my my prognostication.  It could also just mean I have my head up my ass.

How about the custom blends?

Love/Hate - 1st round - 22/32 correct, 2nd round - 9/16 correct, 40 total points
                   6/8 Elite 8, 4/4 Final Four remaining
Analysis/Hate - 1st round 19/32 correct, 2nd round - 8/16 correct, 35 total points
                   6/8 Elite 8, 4/4 Final Four remaining
Love/Analysis - 1st round - 24/32 correct, 2nd round - 8/16 correct, 40 total points
                   4/8 Elite 8, 2/4 Final Four remaining
Hate/Monkey Poo - 1st round - 23/32 correct, 2nd round 5/16 correct, 33 total points
                   3/8 Elite 8, 1/4 Final Four remaining, champion gone
"Perfection" - 1st round - 20/32 correct, 2nd round - 9/16 correct, 38 total points
                   4/8 Elite 8, 3/4 Final Four remaining, champion gone

Obviously, there are still a lot of games to be played and majority of points still to be scored.  But I have to say my blending process appears to be a failure, since none of the blends is clearly superior to either pure intelligence or pure luck.  Just as an exercise, I decided to see what my best possible blend could have been.  With the right blend, I could have gone 32/32 in the first round and 15/16 in the second round.  Interestingly, the one Sweet 16 team I didn't pick on any of my brackets was my Kentucky Wildcats.  And in most of the cases where only 1 of my 4 humor brackets was correct, it was hate (6/10).  So if there is a lesson to be learned here, it's that picking a few teams I hate could really help my predictions.  The problem is I hate so many teams it's hard to know which ones to pick.

No comments:

Post a Comment